← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 70% | 61% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.92 | value: +20% |
| Gaziantep win | 10% | 15% | 9.50 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1670.35 | 1509.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.17 | -28.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.14 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |