← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
| Akhisarspor win | 19% | 24% | 5.21 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Akhisarspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 138.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1597.28 | 1560.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.91 | -25.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |