← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Wed, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 50% | 38% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.63 | fair |
| Galatasaray win | 23% | 35% | 4.23 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1702.47 | 1806.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.14 | 3.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 40.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 2.22 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |