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Besiktas 2–1 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Fri, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Besiktas win46%56%2.10value: +18%
Genclerbirligi win27%18%3.61fair
Draw27%26%3.68fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasGenclerbirligi
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days727.0028.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
elo1719.921564.94
elo momentum (last 5)-23.46-12.08
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.961.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
league points66.0040.00
league rank3.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.004.00
rest days5.007.00
season ppg2.001.21
state index0.21-0.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60