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Erciyesspor 0–1 Buyuksehyr

← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Buyuksehyr win60%47%1.62fair
Draw23%29%4.33value: +27%
Erciyesspor win17%23%5.63value: +30%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErciyessporBuyuksehyr
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
elo1448.291647.28
elo momentum (last 5)-6.442.06
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points23.0054.00
league rank18.004.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet10.005.00
matches since win10.000.00
rest days4.005.00
season ppg0.741.74
state index-1.030.49
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.60