← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 77% | 61% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 23% | 6.35 | value: +44% |
| Genclerbirligi win | 8% | 16% | 12.70 | value: +106% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1787.54 | 1581.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.42 | -5.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 70.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.29 |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |