← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Wed, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 83% | 77% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +33% |
| Erciyesspor win | 6% | 7% | 17.00 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Erciyesspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1801.12 | 1439.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.74 | -21.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 66.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 0.73 |
| state index | 1.43 | -1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |