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Konyaspor 1–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Tue, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Konyaspor win43%37%2.26fair
Draw29%31%3.39value: +5%
Genclerbirligi win28%32%3.47value: +12%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporGenclerbirligi
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days223.0011.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1546.321591.00
elo momentum (last 5)3.4517.71
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.69
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
league points38.0040.00
league rank9.008.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
rest days4.003.00
season ppg1.271.33
state index0.090.57
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80