← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 61% | 52% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.52 | value: +15% |
| Sivasspor win | 18% | 22% | 5.51 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sivasspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 159.00 | 677.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1581.54 | 1795.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.77 | 18.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| state index | 0.48 | 1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |