← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 59% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.25 | value: +4% |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 18% | 18% | 5.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 342.00 | 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1645.88 | 1508.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.21 | 6.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 47.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |