← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Mon, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 60% | 52% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.22 | value: +6% |
| Akhisarspor win | 17% | 23% | 5.76 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Akhisarspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 123.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1534.98 | 1771.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.67 | -4.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 33.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.18 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |