← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 38% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
| Kasimpasa win | 35% | 38% | 2.76 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1553.84 | 1662.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.58 | 2.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 32.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.68 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |