← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 38% | 43% | 2.56 | value: +11% |
| Kasimpasa win | 34% | 30% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1549.32 | 1727.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.17 | -6.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 29.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.12 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |