← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 48% | 34% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.56 | value: +5% |
| Genclerbirligi win | 25% | 36% | 3.98 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 649.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1487.00 | 1587.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.98 | 31.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 18.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.35 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |