← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 65% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.79 | value: +13% |
| Erciyesspor win | 15% | 17% | 6.68 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Erciyesspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1646.13 | 1461.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.99 | -26.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 41.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.80 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |