⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Sivasspor 4–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Bursaspor win39%39%2.51fair
Sivasspor win34%34%2.87fair
Draw27%27%3.59fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporBursaspor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days110.00293.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1556.771666.10
elo momentum (last 5)-11.30-3.40
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
league points24.0041.00
league rank15.004.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg1.001.71
state index-0.250.55
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60