← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 39% | 47% | 2.50 | value: +16% |
| Kasimpasa win | 33% | 27% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1569.50 | 1770.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.71 | -0.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.17 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |