← Süper Lig 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.11 | fair |
| Akhisarspor win | 17% | 19% | 5.69 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Akhisarspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1582.93 | 1515.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.67 | -1.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |