← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sun, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 36% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 34% | 42% | 2.84 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 314.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1573.21 | 1613.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.48 | 56.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 47.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |