← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 78% | 71% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.68 | value: +33% |
| Erciyesspor win | 7% | 9% | 13.00 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Erciyesspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1762.82 | 1511.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.23 | 11.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 62.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |