← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 41% | 35% | 2.39 | fair |
| Trabzonspor win | 31% | 35% | 3.16 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 467.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1648.13 | 1747.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.85 | -26.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 50.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.84 |
| state index | 1.14 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |