← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Fri, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 66% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.96 | value: +7% |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 14% | 11% | 6.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 312.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1754.13 | 1580.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.88 | 1.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 68.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.47 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |