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Akhisarspor 3–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Fenerbahce win55%54%1.79fair
Draw23%25%4.27value: +6%
Akhisarspor win23%21%4.34fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporFenerbahce
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days976.00307.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1558.051775.50
elo momentum (last 5)-19.16-4.33
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
league points41.0068.00
league rank10.001.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.002.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.322.19
state index-0.200.91
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60