← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 72% | 63% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 24% | 5.35 | value: +27% |
| Genclerbirligi win | 10% | 13% | 9.50 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1742.73 | 1590.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.06 | 16.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |