← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 52% | 49% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +4% |
| Kasimpasa win | 23% | 24% | 4.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 336.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1685.92 | 1627.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.36 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 55.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.23 | 1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |