← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 58% | 62% | 1.68 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.22 | fair |
| Kasimpasa win | 19% | 14% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1767.62 | 1588.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.64 | 0.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |