← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 40% | 34% | 2.43 | fair |
| Gaziantep win | 31% | 36% | 3.15 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 34.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1565.05 | 1589.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.76 | 2.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |