← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 46% | 54% | 2.12 | value: +15% |
| Elazigspor win | 27% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Elazigspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 173.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1564.41 | 1507.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.15 | 35.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |