← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Mon, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 48% | 38% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Trabzonspor win | 25% | 35% | 3.96 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 405.00 | 252.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1608.03 | 1752.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.77 | -28.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.49 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 2.22 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |