← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 49% | 43% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Sivasspor win | 25% | 31% | 3.95 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 159.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1542.17 | 1585.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.19 | -42.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |