← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 36% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +12% |
| Elazigspor win | 34% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elazigspor | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1512.43 | 1588.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.56 | -19.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 26.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.48 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |