← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 42% | 52% | 2.32 | value: +22% |
| Erciyesspor win | 30% | 19% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Erciyesspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 60.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1513.85 | 1464.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.90 | 18.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |