← Süper Lig 2013-14 · Fri, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 36% | 32% | 2.69 | fair |
| Akhisarspor win | 34% | 38% | 2.83 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Akhisarspor | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 911.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1586.96 | 1641.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.98 | -4.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |