← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elazigspor win | 39% | 34% | 2.52 | fair |
| Sivasspor win | 32% | 37% | 3.06 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elazigspor | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1492.47 | 1576.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.22 | 17.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 42.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |