← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 65% | 51% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.51 | value: +21% |
| Trabzonspor win | 13% | 22% | 7.44 | value: +64% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1781.13 | 1633.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.97 | 26.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 68.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.39 |
| state index | 1.25 | 0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |