← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 67% | 55% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.79 | value: +12% |
| Genclerbirligi win | 13% | 22% | 7.52 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 344.00 | 496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1668.39 | 1605.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.58 | 3.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |