← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elazigspor win | 40% | 28% | 2.42 | fair |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 30% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.34 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mersin Idman Yurdu | Elazigspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.85 | 1470.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.14 | 12.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 22.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.23 |
| state index | -1.20 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |