← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 45% | 37% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Gaziantep win | 25% | 35% | 3.85 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1542.37 | 1601.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.38 | 12.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 37.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |