← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 37% | 34% | 2.63 | fair |
| Eskisehirspor win | 34% | 39% | 2.83 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eskisehirspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1602.77 | 1658.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.70 | -20.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.68 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |