← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 46% | 52% | 2.11 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
| Buyuksehyr win | 25% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1525.36 | 1751.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.02 | 2.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.87 |
| state index | -0.89 | 1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |