← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 61% | 47% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.24 | value: +20% |
| Gaziantep win | 17% | 25% | 5.90 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 86.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1608.47 | 1779.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.76 | 29.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 39.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.07 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |