← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskisehirspor win | 42% | 36% | 2.33 | fair |
| Trabzonspor win | 29% | 34% | 3.33 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eskisehirspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1602.86 | 1612.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.85 | -2.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 39.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |