← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
| Sivasspor win | 23% | 26% | 4.16 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 202.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1600.98 | 1557.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.47 | -2.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |