← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 38% | 50% | 2.56 | value: +28% |
| Akhisarspor win | 34% | 22% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Akhisarspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 597.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1520.99 | 1673.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.82 | -29.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 32.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.69 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |