← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 81% | 68% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 22% | 7.26 | value: +58% |
| Elazigspor win | 6% | 10% | 16.69 | value: +75% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Elazigspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1775.92 | 1462.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.43 | 22.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 59.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.21 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |