← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 56% | 45% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.65 | value: +9% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 17% | 25% | 5.60 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mersin Idman Yurdu | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1465.52 | 1656.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.08 | 2.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 21.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.54 |
| state index | -1.02 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |