← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.09 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 19% | 20% | 5.11 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1553.13 | 1770.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.53 | 2.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 34.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |