← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 28% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 66.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1639.98 | 1684.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.36 | 0.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |