← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 54% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.86 | value: +14% |
| Elazigspor win | 21% | 20% | 4.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Elazigspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 187.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1579.63 | 1460.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.03 | 45.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 36.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |