← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor win | 43% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
| Kasimpasa win | 28% | 31% | 3.45 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Antalyaspor | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1616.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1541.67 | 1586.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.67 | 50.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |