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Antalyaspor 3–2 Kasimpasa

← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Antalyaspor win43%40%2.25fair
Draw28%29%3.44fair
Kasimpasa win28%31%3.45value: +7%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKasimpasa
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1616.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1541.671586.16
elo momentum (last 5)-20.6750.61
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.620.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
league points37.0043.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg1.371.59
state index-0.230.82
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40